Long-Range Weather Forecast: Malaysia’s Monsoon Outlook (From November 2025 Till April 2026)

A long-range weather review covering the period from November 2025 to April 2026 has been issued, providing insights into the upcoming Northeast Monsoon season. The forecast is based on an analysis of several global climate models and is significantly shaped by prevailing ocean conditions.

Global Climate Influences

The current weather pattern is consistent with a weak La Niña state, marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across large areas of the Pacific Ocean. This weak La Niña condition is expected to remain a primary climate driver until at least February 2026.

The country is set to transition fully into the Northeast Monsoon (MTL), which is anticipated to commence in mid-November 2025.

Heavy Rain and Flood Projections

The meteorological review predicts a total of five to seven episodes of heavy rain during the Northeast Monsoon season.

The risk of continuous heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding is highest for specific regions across the duration of the monsoon:

• November 2025: Heavy rain episodes are expected to first impact Kelantan and Terengganu.
• December 2025 – January 2026: The severe weather risk expands, continuing for Kelantan and Terengganu, and extending to Pahang, Johor, Sarawak, and Sabah.
• February 2026: Johor and Sarawak remain vulnerable to heavy rainfall.
• March 2026: The focus shifts, with Sabah continuing to face heavy rain conditions.

The potential for flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas increases sharply when these heavy rain periods coincide with high tide events. Furthermore, strong and sustained northeast winds are expected, which could lead to rough seas and high waves across the South China Sea.

Rainfall Highlights by Region

While most regions are generally forecast to experience average rainfall throughout the period, specific areas are projected to see “Slightly Above Average” rainfall during peak monsoon months:

• East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia: Kelantan (including Jeli, Kuala Krai, Tumpat, and Kota Bharu) and Terengganu (Besut and Setiu) are forecast for Slightly Above Average rainfall in December 2025.
• Sabah and Labuan: Labuan and the West Coast are expected to see Slightly Above Average rainfall in both December 2025 and January 2026. The Kudat area is forecast for Slightly Above Average rainfall from November 2025 through February 2026. Additionally, the Sandakan and Tawau districts are projected to receive Slightly Above Average rainfall in November 2025.
• Sarawak: A notable anomaly is forecast for the Kuching and Samarahan regions, which are expected to experience Slightly Below Average rainfall in March and April 2026.